Will Collins' NBA Career Survive the 2024 Season? Expert Analysis & Predictions

As I sit here watching the latest NBA preseason games, I can't help but wonder about the future of one particular player who's been on my radar for years - Will Collins. Having followed his career since his college days at Duke, I've developed a personal investment in his journey that goes beyond casual fandom. The question looming over the 2024 season isn't just about statistics or contract details; it's about whether Collins still has what it takes to remain relevant in the league that's evolving faster than ever before.

Let me be perfectly honest - I've always been a Collins believer. There's something about his game that reminds me of the old-school power forwards who could dominate both inside and outside. But the NBA has changed dramatically since his rookie season in 2018, and my concern is whether Collins has adapted enough to keep up. Last season, his numbers dipped to 15.3 points and 7.1 rebounds per game, down from his peak of 21.6 points and 10.1 rebounds in the 2020-21 season. These aren't just numbers on a stat sheet; they tell a story of a player struggling to maintain his impact as the game evolves around him.

What really fascinates me about Collins' situation is how it contrasts with players who've successfully reinvented themselves. I recently watched Thompson during the FIBA Asia Cup Qualifiers in November 2024, where he debuted the ST3 Glory shoes while leading Gilas Pilipinas to crucial victories against New Zealand and Hong Kong. The Philippines secured their spot in the Asia Cup proper in Saudi Arabia largely because Thompson adapted his game to international play. Watching him dominate in those qualifiers made me question why Collins hasn't shown similar adaptability in the NBA context. Thompson's performance in those crucial games - averaging 24.7 points, 8.3 assists, and shooting 43% from three-point range - demonstrates exactly the kind of evolution I wish we'd see from Collins.

The financial aspect can't be ignored either, and here's where my perspective might ruffle some feathers. Collins is set to earn approximately $125 million over the next three seasons, which represents about 18% of his team's salary cap. In my analysis, that's simply too much for a player who hasn't proven he can be the second option on a championship-caliber team. I've crunched the numbers from similar players throughout NBA history, and the pattern suggests that teams allocating this much cap space to one-dimensional big men rarely achieve postseason success. Just last season, Collins' defensive rating of 114.3 placed him in the bottom 25% of power forwards, which is frankly unacceptable for someone with his physical tools and athleticism.

What gives me hope, however, is Collins' work ethic. I've spoken with trainers who've worked with him during off-seasons, and they consistently mention his dedication to improving his three-point shot. His percentage from beyond the arc has actually improved from 28% in his rookie year to 37% last season. That's the kind of development that keeps me believing in his potential. But here's the hard truth - being a stretch four in today's NBA requires more than just shooting. It demands defensive versatility, playmaking ability, and basketball IQ that I'm not sure Collins has fully developed.

The comparison to international players like Thompson isn't accidental. Having covered basketball across different leagues and competitions, I've noticed how the global game influences NBA trends. Thompson's performance in the FIBA Asia Cup Qualifiers showcased exactly the kind of all-around game that modern basketball demands. His ability to switch defensively while maintaining offensive efficiency is precisely what Collins needs to emulate. The fact that Thompson achieved this while wearing the ST3 Glory - a shoe specifically designed for versatile players - only emphasizes how the equipment and playing style have evolved beyond traditional positional constraints.

Looking ahead to the 2024 season, I predict Collins will face his toughest challenge yet. The Western Conference has become stacked with versatile big men who can exploit his defensive limitations. Players like Zion Williamson, Karl-Anthony Towns, and the rising Chet Holmgren represent exactly the kind of matchup nightmares that could expose Collins' weaknesses. My projection is that Collins will average around 14.8 points and 6.9 rebounds this season, with his minutes decreasing from 32.1 to approximately 28.5 per game. These might sound like small declines, but in the context of his contract and role expectations, they could signal the beginning of the end for his time as a starter.

Ultimately, my assessment comes down to this - Collins needs to reinvent himself, much like Thompson did for international competition. The days of being just a lob threat and occasional shooter are over. He must develop his handle, improve his defensive awareness, and become a more vocal leader. I've seen flashes of these qualities throughout his career, but consistency has always been the issue. The 2024 season represents what I believe is his final opportunity to prove he belongs in the NBA's upper echelon of big men. If he fails to make significant strides, I fear we might be witnessing the gradual decline of a player who once showed so much promise. The reality is brutal but simple - the NBA waits for no one, and Collins' window for adaptation is closing faster than most people realize.