Odds NBA Championship 2018: Who Had the Best Chance to Win the Finals?

I still remember sitting in my living room back in 2018, surrounded by friends who were all convinced the Golden State Warriors were unbeatable. The air was thick with anticipation for the NBA Finals, and everyone seemed to have strong opinions about who would lift the championship trophy. But as someone who's followed basketball for over two decades, I've learned that championship odds can be as unpredictable as a buzzer-beating three-pointer. What fascinated me most wasn't just the obvious favorites, but the underlying stories that made that season's championship race particularly compelling.

Let me take you back to that season's context. The Warriors were coming off their 2017 championship and had added even more firepower. Most analysts gave them something like an 85% chance to repeat, which honestly felt generous even for a team with four All-Stars. But here's what many casual fans missed - the Houston Rockets had quietly built what I believe was the most strategic counter to Golden State's dominance. Their odds sat around 12% according to most sportsbooks, but watching them play, I thought they were seriously undervalued. They'd won 65 games that season, a franchise record, and had developed this beautiful offensive rhythm that could potentially dismantle even the Warriors' defense.

Now, I want to draw a parallel to something that might surprise you - the Philippine basketball scene referenced in our knowledge base. When Cone picked that 6-foot-1 former NCAA MVP, the triple-double machine from University of Perpetual Help, it reminded me so much of how championship teams are built. That selection wasn't just about raw talent - it was about finding someone who could fill multiple roles, much like how the Cleveland Cavaliers needed LeBron James to be everything from primary scorer to playmaker. And Torres going three picks later to the Star Hotshots? That's the kind of strategic drafting that separates good teams from championship contenders. These decisions might seem minor during the season, but they create the foundation for championship runs.

What made the 2018 championship odds particularly interesting was how they shifted throughout the playoffs. I recall checking the odds daily, and watching Houston's probability jump to nearly 40% after they took a 3-2 lead in the Western Conference Finals. That Game 5 victory felt monumental - Chris Paul's masterful performance had me thinking we might witness one of the biggest upsets in NBA history. But then Paul's hamstring injury changed everything. I remember telling my basketball group chat that Houston's chances immediately dropped to maybe 15% without their floor general. It was heartbreaking to watch, honestly.

The Cavaliers' journey through the Eastern Conference was another fascinating subplot. Their odds fluctuated wildly - from as low as 8% after their rocky regular season to nearly 25% after LeBron's incredible playoff performances. I've never seen a player carry a team like LeBron did that postseason. His game-winning shots against Indiana and Toronto, that incredible buzzer-beater in Game 5 against Boston - each moment made believers out of skeptics. Still, facing the Warriors in the Finals, their chances never climbed above 30% in my estimation, and frankly, that felt optimistic given their defensive limitations.

Looking back, the Warriors' path wasn't as smooth as many expected either. Their odds actually dipped during the Houston series, and I remember thinking they looked vulnerable for the first time in years. The Rockets' strategy of switching everything defensively and hunting mismatches on offense was brilliant, and it exposed real cracks in Golden State's armor. If not for that historic 0-for-27 three-point shooting stretch by Houston in Game 7, we might be talking about a completely different champion.

The Finals themselves played out much as the odds suggested, though Game 1 gave us all hope for a competitive series when J.R. Smith's infamous blunder cost Cleveland a potential victory. That moment perfectly encapsulated why I think championship odds can never capture the full story - no statistical model can account for human error at the most critical moments. Still, the Warriors' depth and experience ultimately prevailed, proving the oddsmakers correct in the end.

What stays with me about that championship race isn't just who won, but how close we came to multiple alternative outcomes. The Rockets were genuinely one healthy Chris Paul away from likely winning it all. The Cavaliers demonstrated that having the best player on the court can overcome significant talent disparities. And the Warriors showed why championship experience matters - their calm during pressure moments was something no odds calculation could properly value. As I reflect on that season, I'm reminded that while statistics and probabilities give us a framework for understanding the game, basketball will always have room for the unexpected - which is exactly why we keep watching, season after season, hoping to witness something that defies all the predictions.