Unveiling the 2017 NBA Playoff Odds: Who Really Had the Best Championship Chances?

When I look back at the 2017 NBA playoffs, I can’t help but feel a certain nostalgia—not just because of the legendary performances we witnessed, but because that year’s title race was one of the most analytically fascinating in recent memory. As someone who’s spent years studying both sports analytics and competitive dynamics in professional leagues, I’ve always been drawn to the stories numbers can tell—stories that sometimes get lost in the highlight reels and hot takes. And believe me, in 2017, the numbers were telling one heck of a story.

Let’s start with the obvious: the Golden State Warriors. On paper, their championship odds were staggering. By the end of the regular season, most advanced models gave them something like a 65% chance of winning it all. And why wouldn’t they? With Kevin Durant now fully integrated into their system, the Warriors weren’t just a superteam—they were a statistical anomaly. Their offensive rating hovered around 115.2, and their net rating was north of +11, numbers that, frankly, shouldn’t exist outside of a video game. But here’s the thing about probabilities: they don’t account for human resilience, for those clutch moments when everything is on the line. I remember watching game after game that postseason and thinking how fragile even the most dominant teams can look when pressure mounts. It reminds me of a line from a recent volleyball match report I read—something about former Flying Titan Caitlin Viray firing two clutch attacks before Trisha Tubu put the match away in a nip-and-tuck four-set contest. That’s what the playoffs are all about: those decisive, high-leverage moments that tilt the odds in real time.

Of course, the Warriors weren’t the only contenders. The Cleveland Cavaliers, led by LeBron James, entered the playoffs with around a 22% chance to repeat as champions according to some models—though honestly, I always felt that was a bit generous given their inconsistent regular season. Still, LeBron has this uncanny ability to flip a switch when it matters, and their offensive firepower was undeniable. Then you had the San Antonio Spurs, with their methodical, system-based approach, sitting at maybe 8% in most projections. But if there’s one thing I’ve learned from following the NBA for decades, it’s that regular season performance only tells part of the story. The playoffs are a different beast—a grueling, physical, and psychological marathon where matchups and momentum often trump pure talent.

Take the Western Conference Finals, for example. Before the series began, the Warriors were given an 85% chance to advance by many analysts. But as the games unfolded, I couldn’t shake the feeling that the Spurs—with Kawhi Leonard playing at an MVP level—were closer to upsetting the odds than people realized. When Leonard went down with an injury in Game 1, the entire dynamic shifted. It was one of those cruel twists that analytics can’t predict, a reminder that sports, at their core, are deeply human. In moments like that, I’m reminded of how unpredictable competition can be, much like that volleyball match where Viray and Tubu turned the tide in a close contest. It’s not just about who’s better on paper—it’s about who delivers when the stakes are highest.

Now, let’s talk about the underdogs. The Boston Celtics, for instance, were given a paltry 3% chance to win the title before the playoffs began. But as a longtime observer of the game, I’ve always had a soft spot for teams that outperform expectations. Isaiah Thomas’s heroic performances, especially after his sister’s passing, were the stuff of legend. They didn’t win the championship, but they reminded us why we love sports: for the heart, the grit, the moments that numbers can’t capture. On the other hand, the Houston Rockets, with their high-octane offense led by James Harden, were sitting at around 5%—a number I always thought undervalued their potential. Mike D’Antoni’s system was revolutionary, and in a different year, maybe they could’ve made a deeper run.

When the Finals finally arrived, the Warriors vs. Cavaliers matchup felt almost inevitable. Yet, even then, the odds didn’t tell the whole story. Golden State closed out the series in five games, but each contest had its own rhythm, its own turning points. I’ll never forget Game 3, when Kyrie Irving hit that ridiculous step-back three over Klay Thompson—a shot that, for a moment, made you wonder if Cleveland could defy the probabilities once again. But in the end, the Warriors’ depth and talent prevailed. Looking back, I’d say their actual championship probability by the start of the Finals was closer to 90%, even if the pre-playoff models were slightly more conservative.

So, who really had the best championship chances in 2017? If we’re talking pure numbers, it was Golden State, and it wasn’t particularly close. But as I reflect on that season, I’m struck by how much context matters. Injuries, clutch performances, and even luck play roles that no algorithm can fully quantify. In many ways, analyzing playoff odds is like trying to predict the outcome of a tightly contested volleyball set—you can study the stats, track the momentum, but in the end, it often comes down to who makes the big plays when it counts. The 2017 NBA playoffs were a masterclass in that delicate balance between probability and reality, and as a fan and analyst, I wouldn’t have it any other way.